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[目的]从经济学角度解释当前农业施肥水平过高的原因。[方法]建立农民化肥投入模型,并应用江苏省1990～2004年的序列数据进行实证分析。[结果]20世纪90年代以来化肥投入水平的增加主要原因在于劳动力价格的上涨;农技推广体系的完善程度对农民施肥行为有一定的影响,但农技推广体系的衰落并不是农民施肥量大幅增加的主要原因。[结论]农业施肥水平过高的部分原因在于缺乏科学施肥的技术,但更重要的因素是劳动工资的提高所造成的化肥对劳动投入的替代效应以及农产品价格持续上涨所产生的引致效应。
[Objective] To explain the reasons why the level of agricultural fertilization is too high from the economic point of view. [Method] The investment model of peasants fertilizer was established, and the data of Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2004 were used for empirical analysis. [Result] The increase of input level of fertilizers was mainly due to the increase of labor price; the perfection of agricultural extension system had certain influence on the fertilization behavior of farmers, but the decline of agricultural extension system was not significant Increase the main reason. [Conclusion] The reason of excessive fertilization level in agriculture lies in the lack of technology of scientific fertilization, but the more important factor is the substitution effect of fertilizers on labor input caused by the increase of labor wages and the induced effect caused by the continuous rise of agricultural product prices.