论文部分内容阅读
在一个包含正规部门与非正规部门的新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡模型中,通过搜寻与匹配摩擦将失业引入,并考察中国货币政策盯住目标的选择问题。基于外生货币政策的脉冲响应函数,发现在包含多部门的模型中,政策制定者仍面临着稳定产出缺口与稳定劳动力市场的权衡取舍。而基于社会福利损失角度,相对于不对劳动力市场做出反应的政策机制而言,对劳动力市场做出反应的政策机制,无论是对工资膨胀率还是对失业做出反应,均引起较小的社会福利损失。这一结论意味着在当前中国社会就业形势日益严峻以及经济增长就业弹性相对较小的背景下,采用对劳动力市场直接做出反应的政策机制有利于实现缓和社会就业形势与降低社会福利损失的“双赢”。
In a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that includes the formal sector and the informal sector, unemployment is introduced through search and matching friction, and the selection of China’s monetary policy is pegged to the target. Based on the impulse response function of exogenous monetary policy, it is found that policy makers still face the trade-off between stable output gap and stable labor market in the multi-sector model. However, from the point of view of social welfare loss, the policy mechanism that responds to the labor market, in contrast to the policy mechanism that does not respond to the labor market, causes a smaller society both in terms of wage inflation and unemployment Welfare loss. This conclusion implies that under the background of the increasingly severe employment situation in China’s society and the relatively small employment elasticity of economic growth, adopting a policy mechanism that directly responds to the labor market is conducive to achieving the goal of easing the employment situation in society and reducing the loss of social welfare. “Win-win”.