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2010年中国的可再生能源比例未达预期目标,同时部分可再生能源电力却由于无法上网外送而浪费。本文针对这一现象进行探讨,认为关键在于目前的政策设计没有考虑电网的非线性投入产出关系,从而激励政策效果有限。本文利用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数描述电力消费量、火电发电量、和可再生能源发电量之间的投入产出关系,在此基础上构建了两阶段的最小化购电成本的电力上网模型。研究发现,仅靠补贴政策来实现“十二五”的可再生能源比例目标,补贴水平需要提高到76.04元/千千瓦时。而通过可再生能源发电技术进步,补贴幅度可以明显降低。
In 2010, the proportion of renewable energy in China fell short of the expected target. At the same time, part of the renewable energy power was wasted because it was unable to go online. In this paper, this phenomenon is discussed, the key point is that the current policy design does not take into account the nonlinear input-output relationship of the power grid, and thus incentive policies have limited effect. In this paper, the Cobb-Douglas production function is used to describe the relationship between input and output between electricity consumption, thermal power generation and renewable energy generation. Based on this, a two-phase model of power grid with minimum purchase cost is constructed. The study found that the subsidy policy needs to be increased to 76.04 yuan / kWh only by subsidy policy to achieve the “Twelfth Five-Year” ratio of renewable energy. And by renewable energy power generation technology advances, the magnitude of subsidies can be significantly reduced.