本文根据华东地区发生的六次中强震震例总结和多年预报工作的经验,给出了在中期和短临阶段的一些预报成功率相对较高的预报判据,并且将专家系统技术中的不精确推理方法引入到地震预报工作中,提出了一种计算发震综合信度的方法。 最后给出了华东地区估计未来可能发生的地震的“三要素”的一些主要方法。 Based on the summary of six moderate-strong earthquakes in East China and the experience of multi-year forecasting work, this paper presents some forecasting criterions with relatively high success rates in mid-term and short-term stages, Inaccurate reasoning method was introduced into the earthquake prediction work, and a method to calculate the comprehensive reliability of the seismogenic shock was proposed. Finally, some main methods of estimating the “three elements” of earthquakes in the future in East China are given.