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分析了中国主要自然灾害类型及对农业影响程度的差异,指出,中国干旱受灾面积远大于洪涝受灾面积;干旱发生的次数多于洪涝发生的次数;干旱灾害是影响农业产量的最主要的自然灾害。对今年气象变化复杂总体偏差的特点及对稻谷生产的影响作了分析,指出,受低温影响,春播整体推迟;台风频繁登陆,稻谷生产受损;灾害存在关联,导致连锁反应。分析了自然灾害累积对今年稻米市场的影响,主要表现为灾害影响显著,稻谷产量调减;川渝遭遇大旱,局部供需失衡;闽粤早稻减产,周边地区受益;中稻预期减产,收购价格高走。最后对气象灾害对中国未来稻谷市场影响的趋势作了总结和展望。
The paper analyzes the difference between the types of natural disasters in China and the degree of impact on agriculture. It points out that the area affected by drought in China is much larger than that affected by floods, the number of droughts is more than the number of floods, and the drought disasters are the most important natural disasters affecting agricultural output . This paper analyzes the characteristics of the complex global deviation of meteorological changes and the impact on paddy production this year. It points out that due to the influence of low temperature, the overall sowing of spring seasons is delayed; typhoon frequent landed and paddy production is impaired; and disasters are related, leading to a chain reaction. The impact of natural disasters accumulated on the rice market this year was analyzed. The major impacts were disasters, reduced rice production, heavy drought in Sichuan and Chongqing, and unbalanced supply and demand in some areas. The output of early rice in Fujian and Guangdong decreased and the surrounding areas benefited. go. Finally, the author summarizes and forecasts the trend of meteorological disasters on China’s future paddy market.