党中央提出,到本世纪末要力争把全国人口控制在十二亿以内。中央有关部门已经决定,我省到本世纪末总人口可以达到2700万。我们的预测就是以到本世纪末我省的总人口不超过这个目标测算的。 在测算时,我们采用的方法,叫人口动态预测法,或“模型预测法”。它是根据宋健等著的《人口预测和人口控制》一书(1982年人民出版社)所提供的方法,用电子计算机计算的。这种方法的基本思想是,在影响人口发展的诸因素中,抓住主要因素,建 The CPC Central Committee proposes that by the end of this century, it is necessary to strive to control the entire population within 1.2 billion. Relevant departments of the Central Government have already decided that the total population in our province by the end of this century can reach 27 million. Our prediction is that the total population of our province by the end of this century does not exceed this goal. In our calculations, we use a method called population dynamics forecasting or “model forecasting.” It is based on the method provided by Song Jian et al., “Population Prediction and Population Control” (People’s Publishing House, 1982), using a computerized calculator. The basic idea of ​​this method is that among the factors that affect the development of the population, we should grasp the major factors and build