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一、“十三五”开局之年面临的宏观经济波动态势改革开放30多年来,我国经济并不是以近10%的高速直线增长的。从10年左右的中长周期来考察经济增长率波动,我国经济增速经历了3次上升与回落的波动过程。第一次上升是1982~1984年,GDP增长率从1981年5.2%的低谷上升到1984年15.2%的高峰,上升了10个百分点;第一次回落是1985~1990年,GDP增长率回落到1990年3.8%的低谷,回落了11.4个百分点,下行调整了6年。第二
I. Macroeconomic Fluctuations Facing the Beginning Year of the “Thirteen Five-Year Plan” In the 30 years of reform and opening up, China’s economy did not grow at a linear speed of nearly 10% at a high speed. From the medium-long cycle of about 10 years to investigate the fluctuation of economic growth rate, China’s economic growth experienced three ups and downs of the fluctuation process. The first rise was from 1982 to 1984, with the GDP growth rate rising from a low of 5.2% in 1981 to a peak of 15.2% in 1984, an increase of 10 percentage points. The first decline was from 1985 to 1990 and the GDP growth rate dropped back to 3.8% trough in 1990, down 11.4 percentage points, the downward adjustment of 6 years. second