论文部分内容阅读
基本面方面,在国内经济增速放缓及外围经济不景气的背景下,债券的避险功能可能得到强化,对债市形成支撑。然而,8月CPI数据虽可能出现下行,但仍将高于6%。事实上,市场普遍预期三季度通胀仍将高位运行,加息和政策紧缩预期尚未结束,对债市形成根本制约。虽然有机构认为目前债券收益率水平对下一次加息仍有一定保护作用,但此前央票发行利率的上行也将抑制中长期品种收益率下行的空间。前期债市反弹主要源于资金面行
Fundamentals, the domestic economic slowdown and peripheral economic downturn in the context of the bond hedging function may be strengthened to form a support for the bond market. However, CPI data in August may go down, but will still be higher than 6%. In fact, the market generally expects inflation to remain high in the third quarter. The expected rate hike and policy tightening are not yet over, posing a fundamental constraint on the bond market. Although some institutions think that the current level of bond yields will still have some protection for the next rate hike, the rise in the issuance rate of central bank bills will also curb the downside of long-term yield varieties. Early bond market rebound mainly from the funds face