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近30年来,中国褐飞虱的灾变性迁入因受气候变化的影响而出现了明显的时空变异,为了揭示气候异常对褐飞虱区域性灾变的影响,为我国褐飞虱灾变预警及其区域危害的防控提供理论依据,在收集1983—2008年江苏省32个植保站褐飞虱灯诱资料、1981—2008年太平洋海表温度和南方涛动指数数据及1983—2008年江苏省70个气象台站降水和气温观测资料的基础上,选取高邮、通州和宜兴作为江苏省不同水稻生长区的代表性测站(其中高邮代表江淮稻区,通州代表苏北沿海稻区,宜兴代表苏南稻区),通过对近30年来太平洋海温场、南方涛动、迁入区降水和温度异常与江苏省褐飞虱发生程度之间关系的分析,探讨了气候异常对该省褐飞虱灾变性迁入的影响。结果表明:(1)赤道东太平洋海表水温持续偏高的厄尔尼诺事件多引发江苏省褐飞虱偏重以上程度的发生,且其首次迁入峰的出现时间与厄尔尼诺事件开始期之间有1—14个月的滞后期。(2)南方涛动指数(SOI)持续出现负值的厄尔尼诺事件发生的当年或次年,褐飞虱为偏重以上的发生程度,且其首次迁入峰的出现时间滞后于SOI负值开始期1—14个月。(3)登陆并影响江苏的强热带气旋偏多的拉尼娜年也会出现褐飞虱偏重以上的发生。(4)降水对褐飞虱迁入的影响明显,但有限制条件;降水量大、降水日数多的年份褐飞虱迁入量大、发生程度重;以6—10月降水量、降水日数和降水强度为预报因子,建立了褐飞虱发生等级的回归方程,方程拟合和试报效果好。(5)夏秋季6—10月地面气温的异常对江苏省褐飞虱迁入的发生有一定的影响,秋温偏高的年份常导致江苏省褐飞虱偏重以上的发生。
In the recent 30 years, the catastrophic migration of brown planthopper in China caused obvious spatial and temporal variability due to the impact of climate change. In order to reveal the impact of climate anomalies on the regional catastrophes of the brown planthopper, and provide the prevention and control of brown planthopper catastrophe warning and its regional hazards Based on the data collected from the brown planthopper in 32 plant protection stations in Jiangsu Province from 1983 to 2008, the Pacific SST and the Southern Oscillation Index data from 1981 to 2008 and the precipitation and temperature observations of 70 meteorological stations in Jiangsu Province from 1983 to 2008 Based on the selection of Gaoyou, Tongzhou and Yixing as representative stations of different rice growing areas in Jiangsu Province (including Gaoyou representatives Jianghuai rice, Tongzhou representative Jiangsu coastal rice, Yixing on behalf of southern Jiangsu rice), through nearly 30 In the past years, the relationship between the Pacific SST field, the Southern Oscillation, precipitation and temperature anomaly and the occurrence of BPH in Jiangsu Province was analyzed, and the effect of climate anomalies on the catastrophic migration of BPH in the province was discussed. The results showed that: (1) the El Niño events with consistently high sea surface water temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific triggered more BPH stress in Jiangsu Province, and the number of occurrences of the first immigration peak was 1-14 The lag of the month. (2) Nilaparvata lugens was more than or equal to the current year or the following year when the SOI continued to have a negative value, and the first migration peak lagged behind the onset of SOI negative 1- 14 months. (3) La Niña, which landed on and affected most of the strong tropical cyclones in Jiangsu Province, would also appear to be more stressed by brown planthopper. (4) Precipitation has obvious influence on the migration of BPH, but there are some restrictive conditions. During the years with large amount of precipitation and days of precipitation, the brown planthoppers migrated in large amount and took place to a great extent. According to precipitation in June-October, the number of precipitation days and precipitation intensity Predictors were used to establish regression equations for the occurrence of BPH. The equation fitting and test results were good. (5) The anomalies of surface temperature in summer and autumn from June to October affected the migration of BPH in Jiangsu Province to a certain extent. High-temperature autumn often caused the BPH to be more serious in Jiangsu Province.