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2007年国际商品市场持续走强,主要体现在能源、农产品和贵金属的走势上,而基本金属则相对走弱。包括21种主要大宗商品期货价格的美国商品研究局(CRB)指数在2007年上涨了20%。与此同时,美元汇率在2007年表现疲软。美元指数(包括六种主要货币兑美元的汇率,以贸易结算量为权重)在2007年下跌了7.3%。全球性商品价格上涨的背后有哪些内在原因,而又与美元汇率疲软有着怎样的关系?始于新世纪开端的商品牛市,是否能在未来持续走牛成为了人们广泛关注的问题。
In 2007, the international commodity markets continued to strengthen mainly in the trend of energy, agricultural products and precious metals, while the base metals were relatively weaker. The U.S. Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) index, which includes the prices of 21 major commodity futures, rose 20% in 2007. In the meantime, the U.S. dollar was weak in 2007. The dollar index (including the exchange rates of the six major currencies against the U.S. dollar, weighted by trade settlements) dropped 7.3% in 2007. What are the underlying reasons behind the rise of global commodity prices and the relationship between the weak exchange rate of the U.S. dollar and the commodity bull market that started at the beginning of the new century? Whether or not we can continue beefing in the future has become a widespread concern.