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针对中国目前的水资源、水环境的现状以及流域水资源管理、信息统计等特点,将世界自然基金会(WWF)和德国投资与开发有限公司(DEG)提出的水风险评估指标做了本土化调整,建立了适应中国国情的流域水风险评估指标体系。采用5级5分制计算每个指标的评分值,对部分指标的权重和计算方法做了调整,并采用综合指数加权求和法计算综合评分值。选取长江流域及其所辖的7个二级分区进行了水风险评价。结果表明,2010年长江流域及其二级区的水风险评分值均在1.1~1.8分之间,风险等级为Ⅱ级,属低风险区;各二级区的风险存在一定的差异,其中,太湖水系和汉江属Ⅱ级区中评分值较高的流域,嘉陵江的评分值最低;不同指标分类对流域水风险的贡献率不同:影响较大的是物理风险,贡献率在45%~60%左右;其次是监管风险,贡献率在21%~32%左右;最小是声誉风险,贡献率在25%以下。最后,结合我国水风险评估过程中出现的新问题,展望了本领域的发展趋势。
In response to the current characteristics of water resources and water environment in China, as well as the characteristics of river basin water resources management and information statistics, WWF and DEG (China Investment and Development Co., Ltd.) made a water risk assessment index Adjusted and established a water risk assessment index system that is suitable for China’s national conditions. The 5-point 5-point scale was used to calculate the scores of each index, the weights and calculation methods of some indexes were adjusted, and the composite score was calculated by the comprehensive index weighted summation method. The water risk assessment of the Yangtze River Basin and its seven secondary zones was conducted. The results show that in 2010, the water risk scores of the Yangtze River and its secondary areas are between 1.1 and 1.8, and the risk level is Grade Ⅱ, which is a low-risk area. There is a certain difference in risk among secondary areas, Jialing River has the lowest score in the Taihu Lake and Hanjiang II watersheds. The contribution rates of different index categories to watershed water risk are different: the most significant is the physical risk with a contribution rate of 45% -60% Followed by regulatory risk, the contribution rate of about 21% to 32%; the minimum is the reputation risk, the contribution rate of 25% or less. Finally, combined with the new problems in the process of water risk assessment in our country, the development trend in this field is prospected.