本文根据龚嘴大坝长期观测资料所建立的“统计模型”和根据该坝纵缝局部张开的特点所建立的弹性接触有限元分析的“确定性模型”,对控制大坝安全度的主要指标(如位移和纵缝开度等)进行了计算分析,并拟定了运行期的“状态模型”,初步分析了大坝的安全度。 Based on the “statistical model” established by the long-term observational data of Gongzui Dam and the “deterministic model” of the finite element analysis of elastic contact established according to the characteristics of the local longitudinal crack of the dam, the paper analyzes the main factors that control the dam safety Indicators (such as displacement and longitudinal seam opening) were calculated and analyzed, and the “state model” of the operation period was drafted to analyze the dam safety.