项目风险评估是在项目风险识别的基础上,结合定性和定量分析方法估计和衡量风险发生的概率及后果的严重程度,从而找出影响项目的主要风险源和关键风险因素,确定风险区域、风险排序和项目风险可接受准则。在分析项目定量风险评估一般模型基础上,探索适用于型号研制项目的风险评估方法,并提出一个可操作性较强的风险评估模型,以提高风险管理可操作性。 Project risk assessment is based on the project risk identification, combined with qualitative and quantitative analysis methods to estimate and measure the probability of the risk and the severity of the consequences, so as to identify the main risk sources and key risk factors affecting the project, identify the risk area, risk Ranking and project risk acceptable guidelines. Based on the analysis of the general model of project quantitative risk assessment, this paper explores the risk assessment methods applicable to the project of model development and proposes a highly operable risk assessment model to improve the operability of risk management.