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根据云顶黑体温度（ＴＢＢ） 相位变化并参考西沙站海面温度（ＳＳＴ） 状况确定了南海夏季风爆发时间，分析研究了与夏季风爆发时间和强度有关的ＴＢＢ 和ＳＳＴ 变化过程。结果表明：南海夏季风爆发平均时间是５ 月第４ 候，爆发的时间和强度有显著的年际变化，爆发期间的海气状况与大气的低频振荡密切相关。夏季风爆发早年（５ 月第２ 候） ，大气对流活动较强，西南风较强，海温下降显著；夏季风爆发晚年（６ 月第１ 候） 情况则相反；它爆发的强度还与爆发期间大气对流的３０ ～６０ 天振荡到达南海的位相有关；前冬和早春南海海温的高低和４ 月下旬至５ 月中南半岛强对流区的出现时间是南海夏季风爆发年际变化的前期征兆。根据前期南海海温预测１９９８ 年南海夏季风爆发的时间和强度与实况相符。
Based on the phase change of blackbody temperature (TBB) and the SST (sea surface temperature) of the Xisha Station, the onset time of the SCS monsoon and the TBB and SST variations related to the time and intensity of summer monsoon onset are analyzed. The results show that the mean onset time of summer monsoon over South China Sea is the 4th of May, with significant interannual variation of time and intensity. The sea-air condition during the explosion is closely related to the atmospheric low-frequency oscillation. Early summer monsoon onset (2nd month in May), strong atmospheric convection, strong southwesterly, SST decreased significantly; the onset of the summer monsoon (1st of June) the opposite; its intensity of the outbreak also broke out During the period of 30-60 days of atmospheric convection, the phase of oscillation reaches the South China Sea. Pre-winter and early spring sea level of the South China Sea and the occurrence of the mid-south convection in late April and May are the early signs of interannual variability of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset . According to the prediction of the South China Sea SST in 1998, the time and intensity of the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon coincide with the actual situation.