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利用长江上游干流与主要支流岷江和嘉陵江控制水文站60年长系列水沙资料,基于M-K检验法与R/S分析法,通过计算特征曲线初步分析其径流-输沙时序变化特征及发展趋势。结果表明:岷江与长江上游干流径流时序变化幅度较小,嘉陵江年径流则极可能维持现有上升态势,三峡入库控制站寸滩站将延续其在MK检测信度临界值线区间内微小变幅,出现显著下降趋势的几率较小;岷江与长江上游干流输沙减少趋势明显,嘉陵江输沙下降趋势放缓并将维持目前下降水平,三峡入库输沙将继续保持显著下降水平。
Based on M-K test and R / S analysis method, the characteristics of the runoff-sediment timing change and its development trend are analyzed by using the characteristic curves through the use of the 60-year long series of water and sediment data from the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the main hydrological stations of the Minjiang and Jialing Rivers. The results show that the variation of runoff sequence between the Minjiang River and the upper reaches of the Yangtze River is small, and the annual runoff in the Jialing River is likely to maintain its current upward trend. The Cuntan Station of the Three Gorges Dam Control Station will continue its minor change within the critical line of the MK detection reliability The trend of sediment reduction in the mainstreams of the Minjiang River and the upper reaches of the Yangtze River is obvious. The downward trend of the sediment transport in the Jialing River will slow down and will maintain the current decline. The sediment transport of the Three Gorges Reservoir will continue to maintain a significant decline.