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2015年,中国食糖产量同比大幅下滑,主产区种植面积显著减少,销糖量明显下滑,而产销率小幅上升;自动进口许可管理等多策并举下全国食糖进口量为485万t,同比大幅增长38.96%;在厄尔尼诺气候影响下,国内食糖减产预期与刚性成本增长支撑国内糖价震荡上行。展望后市,短期内,预期全球糖市将转为供应短缺,但庞大的结转库存仍使国内外糖价承压,2015/16榨季和2016/17榨季国际糖市转为短缺,2015/16榨季国内食糖进一步减产,食糖产业进入去库存阶段,长期来看食糖价格将可能震荡上涨,需重点关注中国糖业政策、印度和泰国等食糖主产国的天气变化、巴西糖醇政策、大宗商品走势、汇率变化以及宏观经济动态等焦点因素。
In 2015, the output of sugar in China dropped sharply as compared with that of the same period of last year, the area under cultivation in the main producing areas decreased significantly, the sales volume of sugar dropped remarkably, and the sales and production rate slightly increased. The import of imported sugar was 4.85 million tons, An increase of 38.96%; under the influence of El Niño climate, the expected decrease of domestic sugar production and the increase of rigid cost will support the upward swing of domestic sugar price. Looking forward, in the short term, the global sugar market is expected to turn into a shortage of supply. However, the huge carry-over stocks will still weigh domestic and international sugar prices and the international sugar market will become scarce in the 2015/16 and 2016/17 crops. 2015 / 16 crop season domestic sugar to further cut sugar industry into the inventory stage, the long term sugar prices will likely rise shocks, the need to focus on China’s sugar policy, India and Thailand, the main sugar producing countries, the weather changes, the Brazilian sugar alcohol policy , Commodity movements, changes in exchange rates and macroeconomic dynamics.