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本讲介绍概率论与数理统计知识在交通流理论中的一些应用。主要内容有交通到达间隔——车头时距的分布的几种常用概率模型:负指数分布、移位负指数分布、组合式负指数分布、皮尔逊(Pearson)Ⅲ型分布,厄尔朗(Erlang)分布,对数正态分布及这些模型与交通现象的拟合方法。
This talk introduces some applications of probability theory and mathematical statistics in traffic flow theory. The main contents are the common probabilistic models of the distribution of traffic arrival interval-headway: negative exponential distribution, negative displacement exponential distribution, negative exponential distribution, Pearson type Ⅲ distribution, Erlang ) Distribution, lognormal distribution and fitting methods of these models and traffic phenomena.