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目的探索登革热发病数与气象因素间的联系,为日后对登革热疫情预警提供依据。方法收集深圳市2014年7月至11月的本地登革热发病资料,以及同期深圳市各气象条件,使用趋势线拟合散点图回归分析方法,探索气象因素与登革热发病的关系,并根据趋势线决定系数R2的大小判断拟合的优劣。结果当气象因素与登革热发病数各取11日移动平均,且登革热发病数滞后气象因素3日时,两者相关性最高。结论登革热发病数主要受平均气温,日最高气温,日最低气温以及平均气压影响,当平均气温介于22℃~27℃、日最低气温介于20℃~24℃、日最高气温介于26℃~30℃、平均气压低于100.4 kpa时,登革热发病数与上述气象因素呈正相关关系;当平均气温大于27℃、日最低气温大于24℃、日最高气温大于30℃、平均气压大于100.4 kpa时,登革热发病数与上述气象因素呈负相关关系。在主成分分析中,当主成分F介于-25~-12时,登革热发病数与F呈正相关关系;当F大于-12时,登革热发病数与F呈负相关关系。
Objective To explore the relationship between the incidence of dengue fever and meteorological factors and provide evidence for early warning of dengue fever. Methods The data of local dengue fever in Shenzhen from July to November 2014 were collected and the meteorological conditions in Shenzhen were collected. The scatterplot regression analysis method was used to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of dengue fever. According to trend line Determine the size of coefficient R2 to determine the merits of fitting. Results The correlation was highest between the meteorological factors and the incidence of dengue fever on the 11th and the meteorological factors on the 3rd after delaying the onset of dengue fever. Conclusion The incidence of dengue fever is mainly affected by mean temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and mean pressure. When the average temperature is between 22 ℃ and 27 ℃, the daily minimum temperature is between 20 ℃ and 24 ℃, and the daily maximum temperature is between 26 ℃ ~ 30 ℃. When the mean air pressure was lower than 100.4 kpa, the incidence of dengue fever was positively correlated with the above meteorological factors. When the average air temperature was above 27 ℃, the daily minimum air temperature was above 24 ℃, the daily maximum air temperature above 30 ℃ and the mean air pressure above 100.4 kPa The incidence of dengue fever was negatively correlated with the above meteorological factors. In the principal component analysis, the incidence of dengue fever was positively correlated with F when the principal component F was between -25 and -12, and negatively correlated with F when F was greater than -12.