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近年来,风险分析技术日渐成为大坝安全管理的有效工具。本文系统总结了由国际大坝委员会大坝分析和设计计算专家委员会主办的基准研讨会中与大坝风险分析主题相关的三方面研究成果。2011年,基准研讨会讨论了估算重力坝滑动破坏模式下的溃坝概率等问题;2013年,会议讨论了大坝风险分析中后果评估在计算方面所面临的挑战;2015年,会议对土石坝滑动和漫顶破坏的概率进行了分析。从这三次会议关于大坝风险分析数值计算的研究进展可以发现,对于大坝系统的风险分析,包括下游后果评价以及结构模型的不确定性,风险分析方法都是非常有用的工具。
In recent years, risk analysis technology has increasingly become an effective tool for dam safety management. This paper systematically summarizes three research findings related to the topic of dam risk analysis in a benchmark workshop sponsored by the Committee of Experts on Dam Analysis and Design and Computation of the International Commission on Dams. In 2011, the benchmark workshop discussed the issue of estimating the probability of dam failure in the sliding failure mode of a gravity dam. In 2013, the meeting discussed the challenges in the calculation of the consequence assessment in the dam risk analysis. In 2015, The probability of sliding and overhauling damage was analyzed. From the progress made in these three meetings on the numerical analysis of dam risk analysis, it can be found that the risk analysis method is a very useful tool for dam system risk analysis, including the evaluation of downstream consequences and the uncertainty of structural models.