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有色金属的需求将保持稳定的增长态势,但由于各品种之间的供应基本面存在差异,后期不同品种的有色金属走势将出现分化。今年上半年,国际大宗商品市场涨势令人惊喜,整体涨幅超过股市和债市,表现相对优异。尤其是有色金属,自二季度以来,一改颓势,呈集体上扬之势。其中铜和锌两个品种较引人关注:沪铜收复了一季度跌幅,一度呈现出“逼仓”的态势;沪锌则后程发力,连创新高并突破了过去三年的平台,成为今年期货市场的明星品种(见图1)。那么,是什么原因造就了有色金属的此轮涨势?未来,有色金属的上升势头是否能够持续?铜和锌的走势又将如何?
Non-ferrous metals demand will maintain a steady growth trend, but due to differences in the supply fundamentals between the various varieties, the trend of non-ferrous metals in different varieties will be differentiated later. In the first half of this year, the international commodity market rose surprisingly, with the overall increase exceeding the stock market and the bond market, showing relatively good performance. In particular, non-ferrous metals, since the second quarter, changed the tide, showing a collective upward trend. Copper and zinc, two of which are more attractive: Shanghai Copper recovered its first-quarter decline, once showing a “forced position” situation; Shanghai zinc posted a new force and hit a new high and broke through the platform of the past three years. Become the star of the futures market this year (see Figure 1). So, what is the reason for this round of non-ferrous metals rally? In the future, non-ferrous metals to increase the momentum can continue? The trend of copper and zinc in turn?