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一句“中国半导体业泡沫”的个人评论,竟引起了业界广泛的争论。前几日一位美国半导体专家称,未来几年半数以上、甚至60%的中国半导体厂将走向失败,这一论断犹如一颗炸弹引爆了人们对我国半导体行业快速发展的疑虑。半导体业是个全球性产业,从全球的产业数据来看,其泡沫论缺乏足够支撑。包括WSTS、iSuppli在内多家市场研究机构,对2006年全球半导体市场增长率的预测结果都介于8%～11%之间。中国市场虽然超过国际平均增长水平,但这仅是中国整体经济高速发展的一个缩影。本文尝试从国际市场、国内市场最新数据着眼,回顾2006年6月份中国半导体市场最新动态和行业趋势,并作出简要分析和预测。
A personal comment on “China’s Semiconductor Industry Bubble” has aroused widespread industry controversy. A few days ago an American semiconductor expert said that more than half or even 60% of Chinese semiconductor factories will fail in the next few years. This argument is like a bomb detonating doubts about the rapid development of China’s semiconductor industry. Semiconductor industry is a global industry, the global industry data, the lack of sufficient support for its bubble theory. Including WSTS, iSuppli, a number of market research institutions, the global semiconductor market in 2006 forecast the growth rate of between 8% to 11%. Although the Chinese market surpasses the average level of international growth, this is only a microcosm of the rapid development of China’s economy as a whole. This article attempts to focus on the latest data from the international and domestic markets, reviewing the latest developments and industry trends in China’s semiconductor market in June 2006 and making brief analyzes and forecasts.