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文章通过连续时间模型分析了收入关联制和均等受益制这两种现收现付制养老金计划的收支平衡条件。结果表明:在面临人口老龄化时,如果替代率保持不变,收入关联制将出现收支失衡;而在一定条件下,均等受益制不会出现收支失衡,但是替代率水平将逐步下降。分析结果还表明,在人口结构变化时,两种计划的替代率都必须以相同的速度下降以维持收支平衡。相对于均等受益制,我国现行的收入关联制基础养老金计划在面临人口老龄化时缺乏替代率调整的政策工具和合理的方式,容易陷入支付危机;而采用均等受益制则有利于维持养老金计划的可持续性,同时保障老年低收入群体的利益。
In this paper, we analyze the balance of payments between two kinds of PAYG schemes, such as the income-related system and the equal-benefit system, through the continuous-time model. The results show that in the face of population aging, if the replacement rate remains unchanged, the income-related system will have unbalanced income and expenditure; under certain conditions, the equal-benefit system will not be unbalanced, but the replacement rate will gradually decline. The results of the analysis also show that in the case of demographic changes, the replacement rates for both plans must all decline at the same rate to maintain the balance of payments. Relative to the equal benefit system, the current income-related basic pension plan in our country lacks the policy tools and reasonable ways of adjusting the replacement rate in the face of population aging, and is easy to fall into the payment crisis; while using the equal benefit system is conducive to maintaining the pension Program sustainability while safeguarding the interests of older low-income groups.