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随着我国电视剧产业发展的步伐日益加快,电视剧评价方法越来越注重播前预测性评价,这种播前市场预测的核心手段就是收视率预估。现在有不少电视台尝试用客观量化的评价体系对电视剧进行播前预测,但评价指标体系和其中的计算模型大都不同,因此对同样一部电视剧的评价也会产生不同的结果。本文将对目前国内外电视界比较主流的收视率预估方法进行系统分析和研究,在此基础上提出电视剧收视率预估市场化操作的具体指标和整体模式,希望能推动收视率预估方法的科学化和规范化,提高其实际应用的价值。
With the rapid development of the TV drama industry in our country, the TV drama evaluation method pays more and more attention to the predictive evaluation before broadcast. The core means of predicting the broadcast market is the estimation of the audience rating. There are quite a few TV stations trying to predict the TV drama with an objective and quantitative evaluation system. However, the evaluation index system and the calculation models in them are mostly different. Therefore, the evaluation of the same TV series will also produce different results. This article will systematically analyze and research the prevailing ratings estimation methods in the television industry at home and abroad. Based on this, we put forward the specific indicators and the overall mode of the TV ratings evaluation market-oriented operation, hoping to promote the ratings estimation method Scientific and standardized, and enhance the value of its practical application.