本文从气象与水文角度，首先研究淮河关键地段（王家坝）水位变化规律和洪峰出现的特征，并从数理统计理论上对超定量出现次数和洪峰数值进行了随机变量的独立性检验，然后求出淮河洪峰遵从的概率分布，并定性和定量地给出超定量大小与超定量历时关系。最后，结合多年气象资料分析，指出洪峰出现与淮河致洪暴雨有密切关系 From the perspective of meteorology and hydrology, this paper first studies the water level variation and the appearance of flood peak in key sections of the Huaihe River (Wangjiaba), and tests the independence of random variables for the number of over-quantified occurrences and flood peak values ​​from mathematical statistics theory Out of Huaihe flood peak compliance probability distribution, and qualitative and quantitative given super-quantitative size and excess quantitative duration relationship. Finally, combined with many years of meteorological data analysis, it is pointed out that there is a close relationship between flood peak and heavy rainfall caused by the Huaihe River