碰撞概率的大小表征航天器相遇过程的危险程度,碰撞概率是航天器规避机动策略制定的参考依据.如果两个飞行器的相对速度很大且相遇过程很短,相对运动可近似为线性运动,这样就可以将三维概率求解问题转化为二维概率问题.这类的碰撞概率求解通常应用数值计算方法.基于概率积分推导一种碰撞概率计算的分析解,能有效降低计算量并不损失太多精度.最终给出模拟算例验证分析解的准确性. The size of the collision probability characterizes the danger level of the spacecraft encounter process, and the collision probability is the reference basis for the spacecraft to avoid the maneuver strategy.If the relative speed of the two aircraft is very large and the encounter process is very short, the relative motion can be approximated as linear motion The problem of solving three-dimensional probability can be transformed into the two-dimensional problem of probability.The method of solving the collision probability is usually applied to the numerical calculation method.Based on the probability integral to derive an analytic solution of collision probability calculation, the computational cost can be reduced effectively without losing too much accuracy Finally, the accuracy of the simulation example validation analysis solution is given.