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双边政治关系被认为是国家间加强沟通、增进理解互信的重要因素。文章基于1996~2014年中国对亚欧国家出口的HS6分位商品数据分析发现:总体上看,高层互访能积极促进出口数量边际的增长,确实发挥了政治为经济服务的功能,其中元首互访产生的积极效应更加显著;从不同地区和收入水平来看,高层互访对促进出口数量边际增长的作用显著,友好城市关系有助于对欧洲和高收入国家的出口数量和价格边际的增长,却对亚洲和中低收入国家的出口有抑制作用,双边政治冲突成为抑制三元边际的增长的重要因素;同时,“丝路”特征变量和欧洲对高收入国家的促进作用非常显著,“亚欧”合作特征变量对亚洲和中低收入国家影响显著。总之,要积极利用现有合作机制,发挥好双边政治关系对出口贸易的保障作用。
Bilateral political relations are seen as an important factor in strengthening communication among countries and enhancing understanding and mutual trust. Based on the HS6 sellers’ commodity data of China’s exports to Asia-Europe countries from 1996 to 2014, the article finds that on the whole, the exchange of high-level visits can actively promote the growth of the export volume and indeed serve the function of politics for the economy. The positive effect of interviews was even more significant. In terms of different regions and income levels, the exchange of high-level visits had a significant effect on promoting the growth of the export volume. The friendly city relations helped to increase the export volume and price margins in Europe and high-income countries , But it also has an inhibitory effect on exports from Asia and low and middle-income countries. Bilateral political conflicts have become an important factor in restraining the growth of the ternary margins. At the same time, the “Silk Road” characteristic variables and Europe’s promotion to high-income countries are significant , “Asia-Europe” co-operation variables have a significant impact on Asia and low- and middle-income countries. In short, we should make full use of the existing cooperation mechanism to give play to the role of bilateral political relations in safeguarding export trade.