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本文构造了一个具有银行部门和消费—生产者微观基础的一般均衡模型,分析了新兴市场国家双重危机的发生机制。本文发现,下列条件可以引发双重金融危机:(1)一部分外国存款人在中期获得了关于东道国未来产出或币值的糟糕信号;(2)本国居民对未来产出或币值的不利信号反应过度而不再追加投资;(3)居民由于“动物情绪”不再追加投资。
This paper constructs a general equilibrium model with the micro basis of the banking sector and consumer-producer, and analyzes the mechanism of the double crisis in emerging market countries. This paper finds that the following conditions can trigger a double financial crisis: (1) Some foreign depositors have obtained in the medium term a bad signal about the future output or currency value of the host country; (2) Residents of their country have overreacted to unfavorable signals of future output or currency and No additional investment; (3) Residents due to “animal emotions ” no additional investment.