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目的分析1949-2014年石家庄市流行性脑脊髓膜炎(流脑)人群死亡的长期趋势。方法从石家庄市疾病预防控制中心抽取1949-2014年流脑死亡病例信息,定性描述其死亡人群特点、死亡率、病死率变迁,以年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC)定量分析其长期趋势。结果 1949-2014年,石家庄市共报告流脑死亡病例4 443例,平均年龄8.55岁,男女性别比为1.84∶1,城乡比23.16∶1,2-4月病例数占87.51%。人群死亡率最高为341.45/10万,部分年份无死亡病例。死亡率APC为-2.44(t=-10.711,P<0.001),其中0~1岁、1~5岁、5~10岁、10~15岁、15-20岁人群死亡率的下降对全人群死亡率下降的贡献率分别为244.67%、209.43%、242.62%、195.08%、156.56%。病死率为8.26%,APC为-0.53(t=-3.352,P=0.021),但1980年以后上升,基本每10年1高峰。年龄别病死率呈W状,0~1岁、15-20岁、≥60岁的最高。结论 1949-2014年石家庄市流脑死亡率明显下降,病死率虽有下降,但近年来回升。
Objective To analyze the long-term trend of death in people with epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis (ICH) from 1949 to 2014 in Shijiazhuang. Methods The information of meningococcal death from 1949 to 2014 was collected from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Shijiazhuang City. The characteristics of deaths, mortality and mortality were qualitatively described. The long-term trends were quantitatively analyzed with annual percentage change (APC). Results From 1949 to 2014, a total of 4 443 cases of meningitis were reported in Shijiazhuang City, with an average age of 8.55 years. The sex ratio was 1.84:1. The ratio of urban to rural areas was 23.16: 1, accounting for 87.51% of cases between February and April. The highest rate of population mortality was 341.45 / 100 000, no deaths in some years. The APC of death rate was -2.44 (t = -10.711, P <0.001). The death rate of 0-1 year old, 1-5 years old, 5-10 years old, 10-15 years old, The contribution rate of the decrease of death rate was 244.67%, 209.43%, 242.62%, 195.08% and 156.56% respectively. The case fatality rate was 8.26%, APC was -0.53 (t = -3.352, P = 0.021), but rose after 1980, with a peak at every 10 years. Age-specific mortality was W-shaped, 0 to 1 year old, 15-20 years old, ≥ 60-year-old highest. Conclusion The mortality rate of melskars in Shijiazhuang from 1949 to 2014 decreased significantly. Although the mortality rate dropped, it rose in recent years.