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本文分析了近海区台风路径予报的ＦＺ７７Ⅱ方案的予报能力。通过对７７年台风季节试报情况的分析及与美国关岛空海军联合台风警报中心相应予报的比较，本文的结论是：ＦＺ７７Ⅱ方案是具有一定使用价值的统计予报方案。该方案是应用我们改进的逐步回归方法──加校正量逐步回归建立起来的。
This paper analyzes the reporting ability of the FZ77Ⅱ scheme reported by typhoon routes in offshore areas. Through the analysis of the typhoon seasons reported in the past 77 years and the comparison with the report of the United States Air Force and Navy Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Guam, the conclusion of this paper is: The FZ77Ⅱ plan is a statistical report scheme with certain value. The program is to use our improved gradual regression method ─ ─ plus the gradual return of the calibration established.