省会城市在省域经济发展中经常发挥着增长极作用,但在其自身发展中也面临着相应问题。通过选取地方保护这一视角来解读我国省会城市的发展,首先借用新经济地理学三地区模型来分析地方保护是如何影响省会城市发展,数值模拟结果显示:当某省对外省的地方保护程度越深,该省省会城市发展的集聚力越大于分散力,从而导致省会城市过大过快发展,并进一步拉大了该省地区间经济差距。反之,当该省加强同外省的合作来往,省会城市发展会受到一定抑制,并促进了省内其他地区的发展。结合近年来相应的数据进行的实证分析也显示了地方保护对省会城市首位度影响作用是显著的,从而验证了理论分析结论。在进一步通过动态面板系统广义矩估计方法消除内生性问题时,得出的稳健性检验结果也与理论分析结论保持一致。 Capital cities often play a growth pole in the development of provincial economy, but they also face corresponding problems in their own development. By selecting the perspective of local protection to interpret the development of provincial capitals in our country, we first use the three models of new economic geography to analyze how local protection affects the development of provincial capitals. The numerical simulation results show that when the provincial level of local protection in other provinces The greater the conglomeration of capital cities in the province is, the greater the dispersion is, resulting in the over-rapid growth of provincial capitals and further widening the economic gap between the provinces. On the contrary, when the province intensified its cooperation with other provinces, the development of capital cities would be restrained to a certain extent and promoted the development in other parts of the province. The empirical analysis based on the corresponding data in recent years also shows that the impact of local protection on the first degree of provincial capital city is significant, which verifies the conclusion of theoretical analysis. When the endogeneity problem is further eliminated by the GMM estimation method of the dynamic panel system, the results of the robustness test are also consistent with the theoretical analysis.