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铺货是新产品上市阶段将营销活动转化为实际购买的重要步骤,而多专家对市场需求的预测是新产品铺货决策的重要依据。本文基于多专家预测对新产品需求建立情景分析,利用CVaR方法和worst-case鲁棒优化方法构建了铺货决策模型,研究了只基于风险和同时考虑风险及收益约束两种决策下的新产品铺货策略。本文创新地将WCVaR方法运用到铺货决策中,分别量化了每一种市场需求预测,并运用样本近似和对偶方法,将多因素的铺货决策模型转化为线性规划问题进行求解,为新产品上市阶段需求不确定的相关问题研究提供了一种新的方法。同时,Monte Carlo数值仿真说明了策略的有效性和稳健性,也显示出该策略能有效防范小概率事件风险。
Distribution is the new product marketing stage will be an important step into the actual purchase of marketing activities, and many experts predict the market demand is an important basis for new product distribution decisions. Based on multi-expert prediction, this paper builds a scenario analysis of new product demand, constructs the distribution decision-making model using CVaR method and worst-case robust optimization method, and studies the new product based on both risk and risk and return constraints Distribution strategy. In this paper, WCVaR method is applied to the distribution decision-making innovation, each of the market demand forecasting, and the use of sample approximation and duality method, the multi-factor distribution model decision-making into linear programming problems to solve for the new product The research on related issues with uncertain demand during the listing stage provides a new method. Meanwhile, Monte Carlo numerical simulation shows the effectiveness and robustness of the strategy, and also shows that the strategy can effectively prevent the risk of small probability events.