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居民消费需求不足是困扰我国经济增长的一个重要问题。与以往文献围绕人口结构、预防性储蓄、流动性约束、消费习惯等视角的研究不同,文章重点考察土地市场扭曲对中国居民消费不足的影响及其作用机制。在土地垄断供给背景下,地方政府垄断农地非农化市场和城市土地一级市场造成土地市场扭曲,是导致居民消费需求疲软的一个重要原因。文章通过构造土地市场扭曲指标,并基于中国2000-2014年省级面板数据进行实证检验发现,土地市场扭曲对居民消费需求具有显著的抑制作用,土地市场扭曲程度越高,居民消费率则越低。在使用工具变量克服内生性问题后,结论仍然成立。进一步的作用机制研究表明,土地市场扭曲主要通过扩大城乡收入差距、推高住房价格、降低劳动收入份额、加剧财政支出结构偏向的途径影响居民消费。文章的政策含义在于,土地市场扭曲抑制了居民的消费需求,而推进土地供给市场化改革是提升居民消费的有效手段。
Inadequate consumption of residents is an important issue plaguing China’s economic growth. Different from previous studies on demographic structure, precautionary saving, liquidity constraints and consumer habits, this dissertation focuses on the impact of land market distortions on consumer spending in China and its mechanism. Under the monopoly supply of land, local governments monopolize the non-agricultural market of agricultural land and the primary market of urban land, resulting in distorted land market, which is one of the important reasons leading to the weak consumer demand. By constructing an index of land market distortions and conducting empirical tests based on provincial panel data from 2000 to 2014 in China, the article finds that land market distortions have a significant inhibitory effect on residential consumer demand. The higher the land market distortions, the lower the consumer spending rate . After using the tool variables to overcome the endogeneity problem, the conclusion still holds. Further research on the mechanism of action shows that the distorted land market mainly affects residents’ consumption by enlarging the income gap between urban and rural areas, pushing up housing prices, lowering the share of labor income, and aggravating the fiscal expenditure structure. The policy implication of the article is that the distortion of the land market inhibits the residents ’consumption demand, and the marketization reform of land supply is an effective measure to enhance residents’ consumption.