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本文用一简单的统计动力模式,对冬季1000hPa北半球温度作旬及月平均预报试验。采用了三种不同的求平均方法;一是对逐日预报的结果取所需天数的平均;二是用一窗口过滤器求平均;三是导出平均预报公式。预报结果表明,三种方法的旬和月平均预报均超过惯性预报的水平,其中以后两种方法为佳。
In this paper, a simple statistic dynamic model is used to test the monthly and average monthly temperature of the northern hemisphere at 1000 hPa in winter. Three different averaging methods are used: one is to average the number of days required for day-to-day forecasts; the other is to average a window filter; and the third is to derive an average forecast formula. Forecast results show that the three methods of both the average monthly and monthly forecasts are more than the level of inertia forecast, of which the latter two methods is better.