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本文运用房地产市场时间序列数据进行分析,证明了房地产市场存在季节性,并通过季节指数的计算、季节不规则影响与趋势的分离,来说明房地产市场季节性规律,即每年的三月,九月是住宅销售的旺季,不仅如此,本文还以各类物业的实际数据的季节性分析为依据,比较了各类物业的季节性。同时也说明在2008年初价格的上升并非房地产市场价格开始进入景气周期,而仅仅是一个季节性波动的表现而已。
This paper analyzes the real estate market time series data to prove the seasonal existence of the real estate market and illustrates the seasonal law of the real estate market through the calculation of the seasonal index and the separation of seasonal irregularities and trends. That is, the annual March, September Is the season of residential sales, not only that, but also based on the seasonal analysis of the actual data of various types of properties, the seasonal characteristics of various properties are compared. At the same time, it shows that the price rise in early 2008 was not because the real estate market started to enter the economic cycle, but merely a sign of seasonal fluctuations.