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建立考虑降雨预报的跨流域调水供水调度模型,利用决策树算法根据水库当前状态和GFS降雨预报信息获取跨流域调水规则,以确定跨流域调水量,然后进行水库供水调度;选择调水保证率,供水可靠性(缺水风险率),供水恢复性,供水破坏率作为风险评价指标建立风险综合评价体系,对跨流域调水供水调度模型进行风险评估.实例表明,采用考虑降雨预报信息的跨流域调水供水调度模型较水库常规调度和优化调度,综合风险率低,且能有效的提高水资源的利用效率.
The model of inter-basin water transfer and water supply scheduling considering rainfall forecast is established. The decision tree algorithm is used to get the inter-basin water transfer rules according to the current status of the reservoir and the GFS rainfall forecast information to determine the inter-basin water transfer and then to schedule the reservoir water supply. Rate, reliability of water supply (water scarcity risk), water supply recoverability and water supply destruction rate as risk assessment index, a risk assessment system is established to evaluate the risk of inter-basin water transfer and water supply dispatch model.Examples show that adopting the method of considering rainfall forecast information Inter-basin water transfer and water supply dispatching model than conventional reservoir scheduling and optimal scheduling, comprehensive risk rate is low, and can effectively improve water use efficiency.