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目的利用logistic微分方程模型开展其他感染性腹泻预警研究。方法收集2010-2015年长沙市其他感染性腹泻疫情数据建立数据库,将logistic微分方程模型与实际数据进行模型拟合,采用决定系数R~2评价拟合效果,并根据模型特征计算预警月份。结果长沙市其他感染性腹泻周期特征明显,周期起始时间和高峰时间较为稳定。logistic微分方程模型拟合的R~2均在0.9以上,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。2010-2013年长沙市其他感染性腹泻疫情加速月份均为6月,2014年为7月,2015年为5月,对应的预警月份分别为5月、6月、4月。结论 logistic微分方程模型可以用于其他感染性腹泻预警应用研究,长沙市建议预警月份为5月。
Objective To use logistic differential equation model to carry out other infectious diarrhea early warning research. Methods The data of other infectious diarrhea epidemic data in Changsha City from 2010 to 2015 were collected and the logistic differential equation model was fitted with the actual data. The fitting coefficient R ~ 2 was used to evaluate the fitting effect and the warning month was calculated according to the model features. Results The characteristics of other infectious diarrhea cycles in Changsha were obvious, and the cycle start and peak times were stable. Logistic differential equation model fitted R ~ 2 are above 0.9, the difference was statistically significant (P <0.05). The other accelerated epidemics of infectious diarrhea in Changsha in 2010-2013 were June, July 2014 and May 2015 respectively. The corresponding warning months were May, June and April respectively. Conclusion The logistic differential equation model can be used for other infectious diarrhea early warning applications, Changsha recommended early warning month for May.