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The International Monetary Fund(IMF) issued the Chinese Economic Outlook on February 6, in which the expected growth rate of China in 2012 was dropped from 9.0% in September 2011 to 8.25%.
In addition, the IMF forecasted that China could keep its economic growth rate above 8% in 2012-2013. But it warned that China’s economic growth rate would see a drastic decrease if the Euro Zone meets severe recession.
IMF advised China to change its monetary policy a bit to issue more credit loans whole providing proper financial support. Meanwhile, China should accelerate the economic structural change to reduce the negative effect caused by the fluctuated and unstable global demand.
Depressed Global Economy
In the IMF’s report, the deterioration of the Euro Zone’s economic situation and the fragility of other economies are threatening the recovery of global economy. The depression of the global economy is the reason for IMF to drop the forecast of China’s economic growth rate.
However, in IMF’s opinion, China’s economic growth might be slowed down, but it is still in the healthy level. The growth rate will go up from the second half of this year and rise to 8.75% in 2013. In 2011, the economic growth rate of China was 9.2%.
Presently, the investors are waiting for the publication of a series of economic data of China. The analysts hold an opinion that the inflation is fading away but the exports volume will further decrease.
In the report the IMF pointed out that the inflation of China has already “hit its top and begun to fall back”, but China was still exposed to the influence of the increasing food price driven by the demand-supply factors. The unstable food price is an obvious fragility factor. China’s inflation rate dropped to 4.1% at the end of 2011 and the straight decrease was expected by IMF in the first several months of this year.
But IMF warned that the drastic recession of developed economies would cause the decrease of the exports volume from China to these countries, just like what happened in 2008 and 2009. This would bring great impact to China. In the next two years, the net exports volume will make much smaller contribution to the economic growth of China and the current account surplus will be maintained between 3% and 4% of the GDP.
IMF’s report said that the decreasing trade surplus and the arising risk aversion in the world reduced the stress for the appreciation of RMB. Thus the foreign exchange reserve of China will go through eased growth.
But this institution pointed out the current account surplus was still big and the FDI was still full of momentum; therefore the foreign exchange reserve could regain the growth in 2012.
Biggest Concern of China
The biggest concern of China shown in this report is the simultaneous drastic de- crease of trade and real estate.
Though the global economic recession was blamed for IMF’s drop in the forecast of China’s economic growth, China should not neglect the possibility that the strong impact from the outside will unmask more risks inside China, as the IMF warned.
In IMF’s opinion, the biggest concern of China lies in the “self-enhanced drastic decrease simultaneously happening to the trade and real estate sections”. This might lead to the decrease rate of price, trade volume and investment into real estate.
IMF said that the Chinese government’s control of the real estate had already seen its effect – the increasing rate of house price and the property trade volume all had decreased. In order to prevent the real estate market from going downhill, the government could directly buy the real estate for the indemnificatory houses. It could also loosen the restriction over the consumers who buy houses for the first time, earn below-average income and purchase indemnificatory houses.
The Chinese government should maintain its restriction over the credit for the real estate companies (by lowering the loan-to-value ratio, for example) to prevent the financial system from being impacted by the sliding real estate market.
In addition, the report includes the criticism for the Chinese government which limited the banking credit with administrative measures and caused the capital to flow to the non-financial institutions with lower transparency and fewer regulations. This brought bigger influence over the stability of monetary control and financial situation.
In IMF’s opinion, the financial reform which is progressing at a faster pace will make the macroeconomic policies become more complicated and increase the stress of fluidity for small banks. Though no systematic threat would be formed in a short while, the fragility would accumulate if it is not solved in time.
Defense with Financial Measures
Despite the forecast of slower economic growth, China still has the possibility to deal with the situation with financial measures. “The basket financial measures (approximately accounting for 3% of GDP) should be the main defense”. China should make use of these measures to further boost the national economy.
The detailed stimulus measures IMF proposed included the further drop of payment for social insurance and consumption tax, the direct subsidies for the purchasing of durable consumer products, the encouragement for enterprises to increase investment into projects with low pollution and energy consumption, the supply of financial support for small enterprises, the promotion of plans of indemnificatory house and the additional investment in the social security system.
Different from the 4-trillion-yuan stimulus package in 2008, the aforementioned basket stimulus measures should be carried out through budget instead of the banking system, state-owned enterprises and local governments’financing platform.
The stimulus measures in 2009 and 2010 triggered the worries of investors about the credit quality and balance sheet of banks. Now these worries still exist as stated in IMF’s report.
This means that the deterioration of the European debt crisis will limit the effect of any monetary measures taken by China. But the inflation in China has reached its peak and will fall back to the normal level, which will provide conditions for the Chinese government to make tiny changes to the monetary policies and increase the credit supply.
Concretely, the Chinese central bank should ease the fluidity of the capital through weekly open-market operation. If the capital inflow is still depressed, the central bank could choose to lower the reserve requirement.
In the face of the eased economic growth, the central bank of China dropped the reserve requirement by 0.5 percent in December 2012, which was the first time since December 2008.
Moreover, IMF believed that China still needed a lot of efforts to get rid of the side effect of the credit increase after the global economic crisis, especially the balance sheet crisis brought by the eased growth in the real estate and export, as well as the potential loss of the loans of local governments’ financing platforms.
In addition, the IMF forecasted that China could keep its economic growth rate above 8% in 2012-2013. But it warned that China’s economic growth rate would see a drastic decrease if the Euro Zone meets severe recession.
IMF advised China to change its monetary policy a bit to issue more credit loans whole providing proper financial support. Meanwhile, China should accelerate the economic structural change to reduce the negative effect caused by the fluctuated and unstable global demand.
Depressed Global Economy
In the IMF’s report, the deterioration of the Euro Zone’s economic situation and the fragility of other economies are threatening the recovery of global economy. The depression of the global economy is the reason for IMF to drop the forecast of China’s economic growth rate.
However, in IMF’s opinion, China’s economic growth might be slowed down, but it is still in the healthy level. The growth rate will go up from the second half of this year and rise to 8.75% in 2013. In 2011, the economic growth rate of China was 9.2%.
Presently, the investors are waiting for the publication of a series of economic data of China. The analysts hold an opinion that the inflation is fading away but the exports volume will further decrease.
In the report the IMF pointed out that the inflation of China has already “hit its top and begun to fall back”, but China was still exposed to the influence of the increasing food price driven by the demand-supply factors. The unstable food price is an obvious fragility factor. China’s inflation rate dropped to 4.1% at the end of 2011 and the straight decrease was expected by IMF in the first several months of this year.
But IMF warned that the drastic recession of developed economies would cause the decrease of the exports volume from China to these countries, just like what happened in 2008 and 2009. This would bring great impact to China. In the next two years, the net exports volume will make much smaller contribution to the economic growth of China and the current account surplus will be maintained between 3% and 4% of the GDP.
IMF’s report said that the decreasing trade surplus and the arising risk aversion in the world reduced the stress for the appreciation of RMB. Thus the foreign exchange reserve of China will go through eased growth.
But this institution pointed out the current account surplus was still big and the FDI was still full of momentum; therefore the foreign exchange reserve could regain the growth in 2012.
Biggest Concern of China
The biggest concern of China shown in this report is the simultaneous drastic de- crease of trade and real estate.
Though the global economic recession was blamed for IMF’s drop in the forecast of China’s economic growth, China should not neglect the possibility that the strong impact from the outside will unmask more risks inside China, as the IMF warned.
In IMF’s opinion, the biggest concern of China lies in the “self-enhanced drastic decrease simultaneously happening to the trade and real estate sections”. This might lead to the decrease rate of price, trade volume and investment into real estate.
IMF said that the Chinese government’s control of the real estate had already seen its effect – the increasing rate of house price and the property trade volume all had decreased. In order to prevent the real estate market from going downhill, the government could directly buy the real estate for the indemnificatory houses. It could also loosen the restriction over the consumers who buy houses for the first time, earn below-average income and purchase indemnificatory houses.
The Chinese government should maintain its restriction over the credit for the real estate companies (by lowering the loan-to-value ratio, for example) to prevent the financial system from being impacted by the sliding real estate market.
In addition, the report includes the criticism for the Chinese government which limited the banking credit with administrative measures and caused the capital to flow to the non-financial institutions with lower transparency and fewer regulations. This brought bigger influence over the stability of monetary control and financial situation.
In IMF’s opinion, the financial reform which is progressing at a faster pace will make the macroeconomic policies become more complicated and increase the stress of fluidity for small banks. Though no systematic threat would be formed in a short while, the fragility would accumulate if it is not solved in time.
Defense with Financial Measures
Despite the forecast of slower economic growth, China still has the possibility to deal with the situation with financial measures. “The basket financial measures (approximately accounting for 3% of GDP) should be the main defense”. China should make use of these measures to further boost the national economy.
The detailed stimulus measures IMF proposed included the further drop of payment for social insurance and consumption tax, the direct subsidies for the purchasing of durable consumer products, the encouragement for enterprises to increase investment into projects with low pollution and energy consumption, the supply of financial support for small enterprises, the promotion of plans of indemnificatory house and the additional investment in the social security system.
Different from the 4-trillion-yuan stimulus package in 2008, the aforementioned basket stimulus measures should be carried out through budget instead of the banking system, state-owned enterprises and local governments’financing platform.
The stimulus measures in 2009 and 2010 triggered the worries of investors about the credit quality and balance sheet of banks. Now these worries still exist as stated in IMF’s report.
This means that the deterioration of the European debt crisis will limit the effect of any monetary measures taken by China. But the inflation in China has reached its peak and will fall back to the normal level, which will provide conditions for the Chinese government to make tiny changes to the monetary policies and increase the credit supply.
Concretely, the Chinese central bank should ease the fluidity of the capital through weekly open-market operation. If the capital inflow is still depressed, the central bank could choose to lower the reserve requirement.
In the face of the eased economic growth, the central bank of China dropped the reserve requirement by 0.5 percent in December 2012, which was the first time since December 2008.
Moreover, IMF believed that China still needed a lot of efforts to get rid of the side effect of the credit increase after the global economic crisis, especially the balance sheet crisis brought by the eased growth in the real estate and export, as well as the potential loss of the loans of local governments’ financing platforms.