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针对小区域灾情数据缺乏的特点,应用基于模糊数学理论的信息扩散模型,分别从致灾和承灾两个层面,进行了周口市农业旱灾风险综合评价。结果表明:从致灾层面来看,在降水距平百分率小于-36%的情况下,周口市发生旱灾的概率为85%;当降水距平百分率介于-18%~-28%时,旱灾风险概率为30%~60%;在降水距平百分率大于-10%时,旱灾风险概率也小于10%;从承灾层面来看,当受灾指数介于5%~30%时,旱灾风险概率介于40%以上,大概1~3a一遇;当受灾指数大于60%时,旱灾风险概率小于10%,大概10年不遇;当受灾指数大于80%时,旱灾风险概率小于5%,大概20年不遇。评价结果可为河南省农业大市周口的旱灾防控提供科学决策参考。
Aiming at the lack of data of disaster in small area, this paper applies information diffusion model based on fuzzy mathematics theory to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of agricultural drought risk in Zhoukou City from two aspects of disaster and disaster bearing respectively. The results show that the probability of drought in Zhoukou City is 85% when the percentage of precipitation anomalies is less than -36% from the aspect of disaster-induced level. When the precipitation anomaly percentage is between -18% ~ -28%, the drought The probability of risk is 30% -60%; when the percentage of precipitation anomaly is more than -10%, the probability of drought risk is less than 10%; from the aspect of disaster-bearing capacity, when the disaster index ranges from 5% to 30%, the probability of drought risk When the disaster index is more than 60%, the probability of drought risk is less than 10%, and the probability of drought disaster is less than 5% when the disaster index is more than 80%, about 20% Not in the year. The evaluation results can provide scientific decision-making reference for the prevention and control of drought in Zhoukou, an agricultural city in Henan Province.