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基于NCAR/PSU的Reg CM4.0,取A1B情景对中国未来气候变化作了模拟估计,结合1981~2000年数据和中国未来时期(2041~2060年)的温度、降水模拟值,计算获得了中国相应时期及未来时期的蒸发量模拟值,并且计算了中国的农业生产潜力,得到了中国各地区可能达到的期望农业产量.通过比较1981~2000年和未来(21世纪中叶)时期农业生产潜力的变化,发现届时秦岭淮河一线仍然是中国农业生产潜力变化的重要分界线,淮河以南地区农业生产潜力呈下降态势,而淮河以北地区农业生产潜力呈上升趋势,未来农业生产潜力的南北差距将有明显的缩小,对中国东部地区而言未来以秦岭淮河作为中国水稻和小麦的地理分界线可能会北推到黄河一线.更为重要的是,中国传统上农业生产潜力分界线——胡焕庸线对中国农业的锁定正在被突破.突破主要在云南省北部地区和川西地区,农业生产潜力明显提高,秦岭淮河以北的黄淮海平原地区的农业生产潜力也有了提高.农业生产潜力降低最大的区域集中在长三角地区、浙江、福建、贵州等南方省份.胡焕庸线以东秦岭淮河线以北的东北、华北、关中地区,以及秦岭淮河线以南、四川盆地地区的农业生产潜力上升幅度最为明显.此外,本文研究了气候变化下农业生产潜力的变化对中国人口分布的冲击,发现由于气候变化导致农业生产潜力提高的原因,胡焕庸线以西省区的人口占比将增长1.03%.气候变化虽在一定程度上可以缓解中国东西部人口分布不均衡的现象,但并没有从根本上破坏胡焕庸线的人口分布规律.
Based on Reg CM4.0 of NCAR / PSU and taking the A1B scenario to simulate the future climate change in China, based on the data of 1981 ~ 2000 and the temperature and precipitation in China in the forthcoming period (2041 ~ 2060), China Corresponding evapotranspiration in the corresponding period and future period, and calculated the potential of agricultural production in China and obtained the expected output of agriculture in all regions of China.Through comparing the potential of agricultural production in 1981 ~ 2000 and the future (mid-21st century) Changes and found that the Qinling Huaihe River at the first line will still be an important dividing line of changes in the potential of agricultural production in China. The potential for agricultural production in the area south of the Huaihe River will decline. However, the potential for agricultural production in the area north of the Huaihe River will show an upward trend. Is obviously reduced to the east of China in the future as the Qinling Mountains Huaihe as China’s geographical boundaries of rice and wheat may be pushed northward to the Yellow River line.More importantly, China’s traditional agricultural production potential demarcation line - Hu Huan line The lock on China’s agriculture is being a breakthrough in the breakthrough mainly in northern Yunnan and western Sichuan region, the potential of agricultural production The potential for agricultural production in the Huanghe-Huai-Hai Plain north of the Huaihe River in Qinling has also been raised. The areas with the greatest potential for reducing agricultural production are concentrated in the southern Yangtze River Delta, Zhejiang, Fujian and Guizhou provinces. The northeastern China, North China, Guanzhong region and the south of the Huaihe River in Qinling Mountains, Sichuan Basin, the most obvious potential for agricultural production.In addition, this paper studies the impact of changes in agricultural production potential on population distribution under climate change in China, The reason that the change leads to the increase of agricultural production potential is that the proportion of the population in the west of Hu Huan-yung line will increase by 1.03% .Although climate change can alleviate the unbalanced population distribution in eastern and western China to a certain extent, it does not fundamentally undermine Hu Huangyong Line population distribution.