基于对南京浦口217个农户微观样本的调查,构建林农选择行为的Probit分析模型,对比分析了该地区实现林业规模化经营的两条路径——林地流转与林业专业合作社。研究表明:平原林区难以通过大规模的林地流转实现林地集中型的规模经营。相反,不断涌现的林业专业合作社为实现林业规模化经营开辟了一条更为现实的道路。因此,在短期内着重发展林业专业合作社,同时加强林地流转及农村社会保障相关的制度建设,为长期内通过林地流转实现规模化经营做准备。 Based on a survey of 217 farmers in Nanjing Pukou, a Probit analysis model was established to analyze the selection behavior of forest farmers, and the two paths of forestry scale management in this area were comparatively analyzed - forestland conversion and forestry cooperatives. The research shows that it is difficult to realize the scale management of forestland through the large-scale forestland conversion in the plain forest area. On the contrary, emerging forestry cooperatives have opened up a more realistic path for the realization of large-scale forestry management. Therefore, it is imperative to focus on the development of forestry cooperatives in the short term, at the same time, strengthen the system of forestland circulation and social security in rural areas so as to prepare for the long-term realization of large-scale operations through the circulation of forestland.