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在多重不确定性条件下,将燃煤发电投资和CCS技术投资统一在一个两阶段的投资决策模型框架下进行分析,结果表明:高昂的投资成本使得企业宁愿选择购买碳排放指标也不愿投资CCS技术,政府补贴对激励企业投资CCS技术存在直接和间接的效应。保持碳排放价格稳定也能激励企业投资。基于CCS投资期望首达时间导出了补贴规则。将CCS技术投资看作更新期权,与NPV决策方式比较,更新期权的存在抬高了企业价值,降低了发电投资的门槛值。
Under the conditions of multiple uncertainties, coal-fired power generation investment and CCS technology investment are unified under the framework of a two-stage investment decision-making model. The results show that: the high investment cost makes the enterprise prefer to choose the carbon emission index and is not willing to invest CCS technology and government subsidies have direct and indirect effects on motivating enterprises to invest in CCS technology. Maintaining a stable carbon price also encourages business investment. Subsidy rules are derived based on the first-time CCS investment expectations. Considering CCS technology investment as a renewal option, compared with the NPV decision-making method, the existence of renewed options raises corporate value and lowers the threshold of investment in power generation.