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发达国家失业率开始下降,全球制造业快速增长,暗示发达国家踏上实质性复苏之路,全球经济进入扩张周期。但是,2011年以来,一系列风险出现,为全球复苏蒙上了一层阴影:日本突发大地震,对全球供应特别是亚太产业链带来短期负面冲击;中东和北非政局紧张,导致国际油价飙升;欧元区外围国家主权债务问题悬而未决,特别是葡萄牙和西班牙面临再融资考验;美国货币政策一旦转向,可能引发新的金融动荡。一、季度回顾与展望:全球经济实质性复苏,金融压力再度上升一季度,发达国家失业率下降,尤以美国的降
Unemployment in the developed countries began to decline, and the rapid growth of global manufacturing hinted that the developed countries embarked on a path of substantial recovery and the global economy entered an expansion cycle. However, since 2011, a series of risks have cast a shadow over the global recovery: the devastating earthquake in Japan has had a short-term negative impact on the global supply, especially the Asia-Pacific industrial chain; the political tensions in the Middle East and North Africa have led to the rise in international oil prices Soaring; sovereign debt problems in the peripheral areas of the euro area are pending, in particular, Portugal and Spain are facing the challenge of refinancing; once the United States monetary policy is turned, it may trigger new financial turmoil. I. Quarterly Review and Prospects: The global economy is substantially recovering and the financial pressure rises again In the first quarter, the unemployment rate in developed countries has dropped, especially in the United States