基于IPCC的脆弱性定义,本文遴选了冰川覆盖率、冻土深度年变化率、积雪覆盖年变化率、地表径流年变化率、地温年变化率、植被生长年变化率以及人类发展指数年变化率7个指标,开展2001~2020年以及2001~2050年两个时段A1(高排放)和B1(低排放)情景下冰冻圈变化的脆弱性定量评价.评价结果显示,未来中国冰冻圈变化影响区域的脆弱性自东向西呈逐渐增加的分布特征,中东部地区主要为微度和轻度脆弱区,强度脆弱区和极强度脆弱区主要分布在西藏的部分地区.对1981~2000年、2001~2020年以及2001~2050年的脆弱性比较表明,上述3个时期脆弱性最强的是1981~2000年,其次为2001~2020年,脆弱性最小的是2001~2050年.从1981~2000年到2001~2050年,微度脆弱区面积逐渐增加,轻度脆弱区面积逐渐减小,强度脆弱区和极强度脆弱区则先增加再减小.未来气候变化情景下冰冻圈变化影响区域脆弱性减小是由于暴露度、敏感性减小,适应性增加所致. Based on IPCC definition of vulnerability, this paper selected glacier coverage rate, annual permafrost rate, annual change rate of snow cover, annual runoff rate of surface runoff, annual rate of change of vegetation temperature, annual rate of vegetation growth and annual change of human development index Rate of 7 indicators to carry out the quantitative evaluation of the vulnerability changes of the cryosphere under the A1 (high-emission) and B1 (low-emission) scenarios from 2001 to 2020 and from 2001 to 2050. The evaluation results show that in the future the impact of changes in the cryosphere in China Vulnerability of the area shows a gradually increasing distribution from east to west, while the central and eastern regions are mainly micro-degree and mild-degree vulnerable areas, and the areas with strong and extremely weak areas are mainly distributed in parts of Tibet. , 2001-2020 and 2001-2050 shows that the most vulnerable in the above three periods are 1981 ~ 2000, followed by 2001 ~ 2020, the least vulnerable is 2001 ~ 2050. From 1981 From 2000 to 2001 to 2050, the area of ​​micro-vulnerable areas gradually increased, the area of ​​mildly vulnerable areas decreased gradually, and the areas of high-intensity and extreme-intensity areas first increased and then decreased.The changes of the cryosphere in the future climate change scenarios Affect regional vulnerability Is due to the degree of exposure, sensitivity decreases, due to the increase adaptability.