全球金融危机给航运业带来新的信用风险与问题,传统的企业信用风险管理方法已不能适应新形势的需要。以往企业信用风险识别工具通常是针对个体企业的具体财务指标等,一一加以甄别,由于需要关注企业数量众多,对于企业的实际风险防控来说,指导作用有限。宏观信用风险识别模型从市场波动性来考察企业产生信用风险,当市场波动较大或市场持续低迷时,企业信用风险产生概率较大,反之亦反。此外,加大立法建设、政府监督及舆论宣传是防范与规避信用风险的主要外部保障。 The global financial crisis has brought new credit risks and problems to the shipping industry. The traditional methods of corporate credit risk management can no longer meet the needs of the new situation. In the past, corporate credit risk identification tools were usually screened for specific financial indicators of individual enterprises. Due to the large number of enterprises to be concerned, the actual risk prevention and control of enterprises is limited. The macro credit risk identification model examines the credit risk generated by the enterprise from the market volatility. When the market fluctuates greatly or the market is in a downturn, the credit risk generation probability of the enterprise is large, and vice versa. In addition, increasing legislative construction, government supervision and media publicity are the main external guarantees for preventing and avoiding credit risk.