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随着《海峡两岸经济合作框架协议》的签署,大陆对台湾农产品出口迅速增长。本文基于两岸历年的农产品贸易数据,首先分析大陆对台湾农产品出口的现状并进行二元边际分解,结果显示大陆对台湾的农产品出口增长是集约边际和扩展边际共同作用的结果。接着结合两岸的实际情况选择适当的影响因素,对二元边际值的各影响因素进行实证分析,结果显示,大陆农业生产率以及农产品出口价格指数、汇率、贸易制度对集约边际有正向影响,台湾需求水平对集约边际有负向影响;扩展边际则受宏观环境冲击影响显著,与大陆农业生产率则呈现负向关系;而台湾的经济增长速度对二元边际值均无显著影响。根据以上分析结果,本文对大陆农产品出口台湾提出相应的对策建议。
With the signing of the “Framework Agreement on Economic Cooperation across the Taiwan Straits,” mainland exports of agricultural products to Taiwan have rapidly risen. Based on the agricultural trade data of the two sides of the strait over the years, this paper first analyzes the status quo of the mainland’s exports of agricultural products to Taiwan and carries out a two-factor marginal factorization. The results show that the mainland’s export growth of agricultural products to Taiwan is the result of the combined marginalization and expansionary marginalization. Then the author chooses the appropriate influencing factors according to the actual situation of both sides of the strait and makes an empirical analysis of the various influencing factors of the binary marginal value. The results show that the agricultural productivity of the Mainland, the export price index of agricultural products, the exchange rate and the trade system have a positive impact on the marginalization of intensiveness. The level of demand has a negative impact on the intensive marginalization. The expansionary margins are significantly affected by the macroeconomic impact and have a negative relationship with the agricultural productivity in the Mainland. However, the economic growth rate in Taiwan has no significant effect on the binary marginal value. Based on the above analysis results, this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the mainland agricultural products export to Taiwan.