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目的采用ARIMA模型建立上海市手足口病发病预测模型。方法应用SPSS18.0软件对上海市2005-01/2010-06手足口病月发病率进行ARIMA模型建模拟合,并与实际发病率进行比较。结果 ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)12模型能很好地拟合既往时间段的发病序列,对2010-01/06的预测值符合上海市该病的发病率变动趋势。2011和2012年上海市手预测足口病的年发病率分别为235.32/10万和294.59/10万。结论 ARIMA模型能够较好模拟上海市手足口病在时间序列上的变动趋势,并对未来2年该病发病情况进行预测。
Objective To establish the predictive model of HFMD in Shanghai using ARIMA model. Methods SPSS18.0 software was used to model and simulate the monthly incidence rate of HFMD in Shanghai from January 2005 to June 2010 with ARIMA model and compared with the actual incidence. Results The ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (0, 1, 0) 12 model can well fit the sequence of the previous time period. The prediction of 2010-01 / 06 is consistent with the trend of the incidence of the disease in Shanghai . The annual incidence of foot-mouth disease in Shanghai and Shanghai in 2011 and 2012 were 235.32 / lakh and 294.59 / lakh, respectively. Conclusion The ARIMA model can better simulate the time-series trend of hand-foot-mouth disease in Shanghai and predict the incidence of the disease in the next 2 years.