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量化冰雪灾害对输电线路的影响,构建线路覆冰故障率模型对于冰灾条件下架空输电线路的安全运行具有重要意义.针对覆冰在线监测终端实时监测数据的特点和局限,提出了一种基于覆冰导线悬点轴向应力计算架空输电线路最大应力的方法,并建立了相应的覆冰故障概率计算模型.结合某单位耐张塔覆冰在线监测终端的运行数据,采用本模型计算的故障率与监测终端记录的微气象和覆冰比值进行了比较,二者变化趋势吻合度较高,证明了所述模型的准确性.“,”It is significant important to quantify the impact of icing disaster on transmission lines and to construct the model of icing failure rate for the safety operation of transmission line under icing disaster.In allusion to the characteristics and limitations of online monitoring data by icing monitoring terminal,a maximum stress calculation method of transmission line based on the axial stress of the icing conductor is proposed and a corresponding calculation model of icing failure probability is established.Combined with the operating data by icing online monitoring terminal at a transmission tower of a certain company,the failure rate calculated by the proposed model is compared with the micro-meteorological and icing ratio recorded by the monitoring terminal.The coincidence degree of the change trend is high,so as to verify the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed model.