哈金论题是科学哲学家哈金提出的对近代概率论在十七世纪中叶兴起与发展的历史现象的解释,它的主要观点是:近代概率的凸现可通过人们对于征兆、证据、可能性等观念的认识的转变来解释,并宣称近代概率理论之所以产生于十七世纪中叶是因为在此时发生了一场观念革命,而在此之前并不存在具有主客观双重性的近代概率观念。然而加伯和查贝尔以大量详实的资料考证和分析展示了哈金论题并不自洽,导致近代概率产生的征兆、内在证据、可能性的度、频率等观念早已出现在古代和中世纪的思想中。对于从古代到十七世纪中后期这个过程中一系列有关观念的追溯可以发现具有双重性的近代概率的起源的持续踪迹,因此对概率产生和发展的历史解释并不必求助于的概念革命。 Harkin’s thesis is an interpretation of the historical phenomenology of modern probability theory that emerged and developed in the mid-seventeenth century by the scientific philosopher Hakin. Its main point of view is that the emergence of modern probability can be explained by the signs, evidence, possibilities, etc. Concept of understanding to explain and claim that the reason why the theory of modern theory came into being in the mid-seventeenth century because there was a concept revolution at this time, but there is no prior concept of subjective and objective duality of the concept of probability. However, with a large amount of detailed and detailed data research and analysis, Garber and Chabelt show that the thesis of Harkin is not self-consistent, and the notion of modern probability, the evidence of intrinsic probability, the degree of possibility and the frequency have appeared in ancient and medieval thoughts in. The tracing of a series of related concepts from the ancient to the mid-seventeenth century during this process can reveal the continuous traces of the dual origin of modern probability, so historical explanation of probability generation and development does not need to turn to conceptual revolution.