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近几年中国食品价格的大幅度波动不仅影响了稳定的经济增长趋势,而且严重影响居民的正常生活水平,成为社会和政府关注的一大热点。本文实证检验了国内外随机因素等突发事件对中国食品价格波动的冲击效应和冲击路径。研究表明,国内自然灾害事件对食品价格波动具有显著的直接正向冲击效应和显著的间接负向冲击效应,但整体上引发食品价格上涨;国外自然灾害事件和经济危机事件不具有直接冲击效应,但经济危机事件可以通过影响国内经济和价格水平间接引发食品价格上涨。
In recent years, the drastic fluctuations in the food prices in China have not only affected the steady trend of economic growth but also seriously affected the residents’ normal living standards. This has become a hot issue of concern to the society and the government. This paper empirically tests the impact and shock path of unexpected events such as stochastic factors at home and abroad on the fluctuation of Chinese food prices. The research shows that domestic natural disaster events have significant direct positive impact and indirect negative impact on food price volatility, but lead to food prices as a whole. Foreign natural disaster events and economic crisis events do not have a direct impact, Economic crisis can indirectly trigger food price increases by affecting the domestic economy and the price level.