针对较长产量序列纵向及横向可比性较差的问题 ,提出用划分产量阶段的方法进行分段处理。用 GM(1,1)灰色模型分段模拟预测河南省夏玉米单产 ,根据相对气象产量划分产量状态 ,再用马尔柯夫模型转移概率预测系统未来发展方向并修正前者的预报结果。通过模拟和预报 ,准确率都有所提高 In order to solve the problem of poor comparability of long-term and long-term sequences in vertical and horizontal directions, the method of segmenting production stage is proposed to segment. The GM (1,1) gray model was used to simulate and forecast the yield of summer maize in Henan Province. The yield status was divided according to the relative meteorological yield. The Markov model transition probability was used to predict the future development of the system and the forecast results of the former were revised. Through simulation and forecasting, the accuracy rate has increased